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Investment Strategy - Central Bank Transition Raises Defensive Bias

BI enters a leadership transition BI Governor Perry Warjiyo has officially resigned, according to the State Secretariat’s announcement on 27 July 2026. During the transition, BI Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti will serve as acting Governor, while the Board of Governors continues to operate on a collegial basis under the BI Law. This is a highly sensitive development for markets given its implications for policy credibility and continuity.

StockRully Arya Wisnubroto
DownloadJul 28, 2026

Structural challenges keep risk premiums elevated

While Indonesia’s economic performance pillar remained relatively resilient at 24th globally, the deterioration was mainly driven by weaker government and business efficiency, infrastructure quality, and institutional effectiveness, underscoring that investor decisions are increasingly influenced by governance, regulatory certainty, and productivity rather than market size alone. The latest ranking reinforces concerns over Indonesia’s long term investment competitiveness, particularly as neighboring economies such as Vietnam continue to strengthen their position as regional manufacturing hubs.

Fixed Income Daily UpdateJessica Tasijawa
DownloadJun 25, 2026

MSCI Update - Indonesia keeps EM status, with strings attached

Indonesia retains EM status, but T&C apply. MSCI kept Indonesia in the EM index, easing a months long overhang and protecting more than USD8bn of benchmarked foreign ownership, though the reprieve carries a further review up to November 2026 should reform momentum stall, a remote tail that could extend to a Frontier consultation. The selling that preceded it shows how much was already priced, with over IDR70tr ( USD4bn) of outflows YTD excluding the QIR rebalancing and the country weight down to below 0.5% from 1.2%, the lowest in a decade.

Daily ReportWilbert Arifin
DownloadJun 24, 2026

Risk premiums remain elevated despite BI's stabilization efforts

Unlike previous auctions where demand was heavily concentrated in longer tenors, investor preference shifted toward shorter maturities, with the 6M tenor accounting for IDR3.7tr or around 67% of total awarded amounts, indicating a more cautious stance amid ongoing uncertainty and expectations of further policy tightening. The shift in demand was accompanied by a narrowing spread between the 12M and 6M SRBI yields to just 31bps, the tightest level in Jun 26, suggesting investors increasingly favor liquidity and shorter duration exposure despite elevated yield levels. In our view, the increase in SRBI yields was also influenced by BI’s decision to raise its policy rate by another 25bps to 5.75%, as the central bank continues to prioritize external stability and maintain competitive returns to attract foreign inflows.

Fixed Income Daily UpdateJessica Tasijawa
DownloadJun 24, 2026

Domestic support strengthens as geopolitical risks ease

The latest development is positive for global financial markets as it reduces the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly a quarter of global energy trade. While operational challenges remain, including the normalization of shipping traffic and de mining efforts in the Strait, the continuation of talks suggests a lower probability of renewed conflict in the near term.

Fixed Income Daily UpdateJessica Tasijawa
DownloadJun 23, 2026

MSCI Update - Getting Closer to Liberation Day

Accessibility review delivers no negative surprises. MSCI published its annual accessibility review this morning, setting up next week's classification review on June 24th. Only one of 18 measures shifted, with information flow downgraded one notch on limited shareholding transparency and coordinated trading. This is a known concern from January, well within expectations, and the absence of broader deterioration is the more telling signal.

Daily ReportWilbert Arifin
DownloadJun 22, 2026

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