Flash Focus: Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/Not rated) - Haji Isam's Share Pledge, Part III: Mandiri Clarifies, Concentration Replaces Collateral as the Key Risk
BMRI disclosed an IDR40tr facility to Jhonlin Baratama, of which IDR17tr has been drawn. The facility funds the capex and financing needs of Jhonlin Group’s coal businesses. The drawn amount is below the IDR26.1tr BYAN transaction value we previously assumed, while the limit points to a broader group level umbrella facility. BMRI did not explicitly answer whether the facility is used for businesses run with BYAN.
BMRI disclosed an IDR40tr facility to Jhonlin Baratama, of which IDR17tr has been drawn. The facility funds the capex and financing needs of Jhonlin Group’s coal businesses. The drawn amount is below the IDR26.1tr BYAN transaction value we previously assumed, while the limit points to a broader group-level umbrella facility. BMRI did not explicitly answer whether the facility is used for businesses run with BYAN.
The structure is conservative, but the collateral buffer is thin after the October sell-off. Repayment is assessed only on existing coal cash flows, backed by a sinking fund, pledged accounts, non-share collateral, and a top-up or paydown mechanism. Based on JARR and PGUN’s one-month intraday lows (IDR2,120 and IDR6,850 on 16-19 Oct-26), the pledged shares are worth IDR53.3tr, implying at least c.IDR33tr of non-share collateral if 150% coverage applies to the full IDR40tr limit. A renewed fall below those lows, c.17% below current prices, could trigger a top-up or constrain further drawdown.
Liquidation risk recedes, but concentration risk rises. The IDR40tr limit equals 16.0% of bank-only Tier 1 capital of IDR249.9tr in 9M26, or 64% of the 25% legal lending limit (BMPK). This could rise to c.77% should BYAN’s IDR6tr facility and JARR’s loans be aggregated within the group. While not a breach, it already qualifies as a large exposure.
Capital constraints limit further headroom; we remain bearish on BMRI. Assuming FY26F net profit of IDR57tr and a 75-80% payout including the IDR6.2tr interim dividend, Tier 1 would return to only IDR246-249tr by Jun-27, leaving BMPK headroom to the group at a narrow c.IDR13-14tr. A full drawdown would shave c.50bps off bank-only CAR, which could drift to c.17% by Jun-27. Together with tight liquidity (LDR 94.4%) and a record-low LLR ratio of c.2.4%, this leaves little room to sustain both a high payout and robust loan growth.
