Midweek M-Fund Update Ed. Minggu 4 – Oktober 2026: IHSG Kembali Tertekan: Carry Tetap Core

Research – Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia

Macro Update

Bank Indonesia prioritizes stability while maintaining liquidity support

• BI Policy: Bank Indonesia held the BI Rate at 5.75% and the Lending Facility Rate at 6.50%, while raising the Deposit Facility Rate to 5.00%. September bank lending expanded 13.26% YoY versus 8.22% YoY deposit growth, with macroprudential liquidity incentives (KLM) totaling IDR458.5tn.
• Market View: BI's policy mix seeks to stabilize the Rupiah without imposing broad-based liquidity tightening. The gap between credit and deposit growth warrants monitoring for marginal funding pressure. Money market funds remain relevant for carry and liquidity, while short- to intermediate-duration bonds offer greater resilience to yield repricing.

The Fed, a firm dollar, and elevated oil prices continue to constrain sentiment

• Global Market: Ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, the Fed was expected to maintain its policy range at 3.75–4.00%. The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.98%, the DXY at approximately 102.2, and Brent crude at USD115.89/bbl as of October 27.
• Market View: Some easing in US Treasury yields offers limited support, but persistent dollar strength and elevated oil prices add to Rupiah pressure and imported-inflation risks. These conditions constrain the upside for domestic bonds and favor disciplined duration positioning.

Market Update
The JCI fell 1.99% to 5,266.13 on Tuesday (October 27), with 611 stocks declining and 10 sectors closing lower. Foreign investors recorded net selling of approximately IDR709bn, while the Rupiah weakened to IDR18,156/USD and the 10-year Indonesian government bond yield rose to 7.54%. Broad-based losses following the earlier rebound suggest that the recovery in risk appetite remains unconfirmed. Although foreign selling eased relative to the previous session, currency weakness and higher domestic yields continue to warrant caution. Additional risk exposure should await more stable foreign flows, the Rupiah, and market breadth.

Investment View
Carry, underlying asset quality, and portfolio liquidity remain the priorities amid renewed market pressure.

• Core Allocation – Money Market Funds: Maintain as a core allocation to preserve liquidity and portfolio stability, subject to underlying asset quality and redemption terms.
• Selective Allocation – Fixed Income Funds: Favor exposure to Indonesian government bonds and short- to intermediate-duration investment-grade debt to manage sensitivity to rising yields and credit spreads.
• Selective Allocation – Balanced Funds: Maintain limited exposure to flexible-allocation strategies with adequate underlying liquidity.
• Hold – Equity Funds: Maintain existing positions and defer additional allocations until foreign flows, Rupiah stability, and market breadth improve.

SELECTED MUTUAL FUNDS ON M-FUND (One-year performance as of October 27, 2026)

Money Market Funds

• Danapathi Money Market Fund (+5,46% YoY)
• Syailendra Dana Kas (+4,63% YoY)
• TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A (+4,41% YoY)

Fixed Income Funds

• Capital Fixed Income Fund (+5,18% YoY)
• Danamas Stabil (+5,16% YoY)
• I-Hajj Syariah Fund (+4,03% YoY)

Investor Watchlist: The Fed's policy decision, Rupiah stability, foreign flows, SBN/UST yields, oil prices, and JCI methodology reforms.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Mutual fund investments involve risks. Investors should read the prospectus and fund fact sheet before investing.

Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research