M-Fund Insight September 2026: Market Momentum Strengthens, While Investment Strategy Remains Measured

Entering September, positive momentum across Indonesian assets remains intact, although further upside is increasingly constrained by global and domestic risks. The August rally in the JCI and government bonds reflected stronger risk appetite, but elevated U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices, uncertainty over the Fed’s policy trajectory, and inconsistent foreign flows limit the scope for further gains. Domestically, growth remains solid, but rising inflation, renewed contraction in manufacturing PMI, a narrowing trade surplus, and a wider current-account deficit have increased the Rupiah’s vulnerability to external pressures. With the market outlook still constructive but increasingly exposed to volatility ahead of the FOMC and Bank Indonesia meetings, portfolio strategy should remain balanced: preserve liquidity through money market funds, optimize carry through limited duration bond funds with selective duration extension, and gradually accumulate equity funds focused on fundamentally strong large-cap stocks.

Market Overview:

Entering September, the domestic market continues to carry positive momentum from August, with the JCI gaining 5.48% MoM and the 10-year Indonesian government bond yield declining to 6.99%. Nevertheless, investors should remain attentive to rising inflation, weakening manufacturing PMI, and an increasingly narrow trade surplus. With global bond yields and oil prices remaining elevated, portfolio positioning should stay balanced through adequate liquidity, selective fixed-income exposure, and gradual equity accumulation.

To assess the investment implications more closely, several key considerations warrant attention:

1. Can the equity and bond rallies continue in September?

Further upside remains possible, although the path is unlikely to be linear. The upcoming FOMC and Bank Indonesia policy meetings could reshape interest-rate expectations, while foreign capital flows remain inconsistent. Investors should therefore avoid chasing market rallies and instead build positions gradually.

2. Are Indonesia’s economic fundamentals still strong enough to support the market?

Domestic fundamentals remain supported by economic growth of 5.29% YoY, adequate foreign-exchange reserves, and inflation that remains within Bank Indonesia’s target range. However, the widening current-account deficit and narrowing trade surplus have increased the Rupiah’s sensitivity to oil prices and shifts in global capital flows.

Investment Strategies to Consider:

• Maintain portfolio discipline and preserve liquidity through money market funds.
• Focus on short-to-medium-duration fixed-income funds to capture attractive carry.
• Selectively extend bond duration when yields return to more attractive entry levels.
• Gradually accumulate balanced and equity funds with exposure to large-cap companies with strong fundamentals.

M-Fund Selected Products (Fund Fact Sheet data as of July 30, 2026)

• Money Market Fund → TRIM 2 Kelas A (4,37% YoY)
• Money Market Fund → Danamas Stabil (6,41% YoY)
• Fixed-Income Fund → Trimegah Dana Tetap Syariah Kelas A (4,58% YoY)

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Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research