Indonesia Daily Focus October 20, 2026

The average DOC price rose to IDR7,559/chick in September 2026 (+3.9% MoM, +13.9% YoY), the highest since July 2023, while broiler eased to IDR23,580/kg (-3.2% MoM, +3.3% YoY) off its August record and corn edged up to IDR6,688/kg (+1.8% MoM, +21% YoY). In 3Q26, DOC averaged IDR6,707/chick (+34.8% QoQ) and broiler IDR22,197/kg (+18.8% QoQ), while corn averaged IDR6,584/kg (+1.3% QoQ). We expect strong 3Q26 results, though still below 1Q26.

MBG spending reached IDR19tr in September 2026 (+12.7% MoM, +111% YoY), bringing 9M26 spending to IDR153.2tr (+677% YoY), or 66.9% of the IDR229tr revised budget. We estimate spending per day and per person fell 3% MoM on efficiencies at the National Nutrition Agency (BGN) and the absence of public holidays, and we are confident spending will stay within budget. Net foreign outflows continued for a fourth straight month (JPFA IDR110bn, CPIN IDR406bn), while CPIN local ownership jumped 5.2ppt MoM to 19.2%, its highest in at least 36 months.

We maintain our Overweight rating on the sector, given the sustained strength in DOC and broiler prices since the MBG program resumed. We also upgrade CPIN to Buy (TP IDR3,550, 38.7% upside, 3.9x 2026F EV/EBITDA) following Friday's sell-off, triggered by MSCI's announcement of a formal consultation on reclassifying Indonesia as a Standalone Market, and keep JPFA at Buy (TP IDR3,300, 87.0% upside). Key risks: lower-than-expected DOC and broiler prices, higher-than-expected input costs, and a lower-than-expected MBG impact.