Mirae Asset Sees External Factors Will Shape Market Sentiment in the Second Half of 2026

PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia believes that the resilience of Indonesia’s external sector will be a key determinant of market sentiment in the second half of 2026. Amid global economic uncertainty, investors are expected to become increasingly selective, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals.

Rully Arya Wisnubroto, Head of Research and Chief Economist at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, said that a company’s ability to sustain its performance amid evolving economic conditions and persistently high interest rates would be one of investors’ primary considerations.

“We believe investors will increasingly focus on the quality of corporate fundamentals. Amid evolving macroeconomic conditions, companies with strong liquidity, well-maintained asset quality, and the ability to deliver sustainable performance will be more attractive than those that are more sensitive to changing market conditions,” Rully said.

According to Rully, these factors underpin Mirae Asset’s decision to maintain PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) as its top pick in the banking sector. BBCA is considered to have stronger fundamentals than other major banks, supported by the potential for net interest margin (NIM) expansion, adequate liquidity with a loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 74.1%, and well-maintained asset quality, as reflected in a gross non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.8% and a stable cost of credit of 6 basis points.

“Given the relatively tight liquidity conditions in the banking sector, we believe BBCA is better positioned than other major banks. These strong fundamentals are among the reasons we continue to name BBCA as our top pick in the banking sector,” Rully said.

Rully added that, amid growing attention to macroeconomic conditions, investors need to balance their assessment of external factors with an evaluation of companies’ fundamental quality to navigate market volatility more effectively.

In line with this view, Novani Karina Saputri, Research Analyst at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, said market attention is now shifting toward Indonesia’s ability to maintain the resilience of its external sector. This follows the country’s trade deficit of US$1.61 billion in May 2026, which ended 72 consecutive months of trade surpluses and marked the largest monthly deficit since April 2019.

According to Novani, the May 2026 trade deficit indicates mounting pressure on Indonesia’s external sector amid slowing global trade, normalizing commodity prices, and high oil and gas imports. This has occurred while the current account remains in deficit and foreign exchange reserves continue to decline.

“The end of the 72-month trade surplus streak indicates that Indonesia’s external buffers are beginning to narrow. As a result, the country is becoming increasingly dependent on portfolio capital inflows to maintain external stability,” Novani said.

She added that market attention going forward would no longer focus solely on the return of a trade surplus, but also on the overall resilience of Indonesia’s external sector.

“The recovery in global demand, commodity price movements, high energy import requirements, and the effectiveness of the implementation of the Foreign Exchange Proceeds from Natural Resources Exports policy, or DHE, will be the key factors determining external-sector resilience, rupiah stability, and market sentiment. As long as the trade surplus remains limited, the current account stays in deficit, and pressure on the rupiah has not fully subsided, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain a policy mix focused on stability,” Novani concluded.