IHSG Rebounds as Mirae Asset Sekuritas Highlights Renewed Foreign Buying in Major Banks

PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia sees further upside potential for the Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG), supported by renewed foreign accumulation in major banking stocks. On September 1, 2026, the IHSG rose 1.1% to 6,600, led by BBRI, BBCA, and BMRI. The gain also reflected improving market leadership toward large-cap stocks with higher liquidity.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas views the foreign inflow trend that has been in place since August as a positive signal for the domestic market. Greater certainty over Bank Indonesia’s leadership, following the House of Representatives’ approval of Destry Damayanti as BI Governor, has also supported market sentiment. However, investors should continue to monitor inflation, domestic demand, and global market conditions, which could influence the IHSG’s further upside.

“Foreign accumulation in major banking stocks points to improving market leadership toward more liquid large-cap stocks. With the Rupiah relatively stable and the correction in Indonesian government bonds (SBN) more limited than in U.S. Treasuries (UST), we see the domestic backdrop remaining constructive, although rising food inflation and pressure on global yields continue to limit room for a more aggressive risk-on move,” said Rully Arya Wisnubroto, Head of Research and Chief Economist at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia.

From a macroeconomic perspective, Indonesia’s inflation accelerated to 3.2% YoY in August 2026 from 2.9% in July. Mirae Asset Sekuritas considers the increase to be driven primarily by supply-side factors, particularly food prices and higher gold prices, rather than broad-based demand-pull inflation. Monthly inflation stood at 0.2% MoM, with food components contributing the most.

Jessica Tasijawa, Fixed Income Analyst at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, said inflationary pressures should remain on investors’ radar through year-end amid potential disruptions to food supply. A strengthening El Niño could put pressure on food supplies as structural demand rises, particularly alongside the expansion of government programs such as the Free Nutritious Meals (Makan Bergizi Gratis/MBG) program. Mirae Asset expects inflation to remain in the 3.0–3.5% range through end-2026, with risks tilted to the upside.

“Although inflation has risen, we have yet to see strong signs of broad-based demand-driven inflationary pressure. However, supply-side risks, particularly from the potential for a strong El Niño through early 2027, could keep Bank Indonesia cautious in maintaining inflation and Rupiah stability,” Jessica said.

Meanwhile, the recovery in domestic demand remains uneven. Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction territory at 49.8 in August, while core inflation edged up only slightly to 1.93% YoY. This suggests that the current rise in inflation does not yet fully reflect stronger purchasing power or robust domestic demand.

Against this backdrop, Mirae Asset Sekuritas sees room for the IHSG’s gains to continue, particularly if foreign inflows into large-cap and banking stocks persist. However, the sustainability of the rally will remain dependent on Rupiah stability, the direction of global yields, and the trajectory of inflation and domestic demand recovery.